Emissions in Europe are steeply declining and the ETS is failing to keep pace. Read here (pdf) for the reasons why we believe energy demand is falling and the surplus growing.
Underlying demand for electricity is key but even changing it to grow each year doesn't stop the surplus building - it merely slows the rate of increase.
Our assumptions for the ETS surplus counter:
Our counter shows a linear progression from January 1st, 2014.
We started from a baseline of 2,137,968,403 tonnes which is the calculated ETS surplus (including offsets) at the end of December, 2013.
In our base case the surplus rises to 4.6bn tonnes in 2020.
The European Commission estimates it will rise to 2.6bn in 2020. The UK estimates a surplus of 3.1bn
Recent trends in demand for electricity have been -0.9% per annum over the period 2010-13 and in 2014 looks set to fall by -2%, the lowest demand since 2003.